EU-25 Dairy and Products Annual 2004
Auteur: Torry Justina, Bendz Karin, Polet Yvan
-Quota de production
"The accession in 2004 of ten NMS to the European Union will lead to an increase in EU-25
milk deliveries to dairies amounting to 132,300 MT in 2005, adding 14 percent of NMS milk
to the EU-15 116 million MT deliveries. Lower milk prices in Northern NMS led to increased
milk exports, from Poland and Slovakia mainly, to the EU-15 upon accession on May 1, 2004.
This didn’t lead to a reduction in deliveries to dairies in the NMS, because of the increase in
the percentage of milk going to dairies as a result of producers adapting to European milk
quality standards. Milk production in the EU-15 is forecast to increase again in 2005, after a
significant decline in 2004 as farmers adjusted milk production to avoid overshooting their
quota. However, EU-15 milk deliveries in 2005 are forecast to remain 700,000 MT below
2003 deliveries, but increased deliveries in the NMS will expectedly compensate for this.
Higher domestic consumption and good export opportunities in combination with lower
support prices for NFDM and butter lead to increased cheese production in the EU. In the
EU-15, a one percent production increase to 5,800 thousand MT is forecast in 2005, on top
of the three percent in 2004, compared to 2003. The 2005 NMS cheese production is
forecast at 590 thousand MT, an eight percent increase over 2003. Accession increased
cheese trade between EU-15 and NMS in both directions.
Butter production in the EU-15 is forecast to further decline by one percent to 1,880
thousand MT in 2005, after a two percent decline in 2004, compared to 2003. This decline
reflects difficult market conditions and anticipates to the upcoming cuts in intervention prices
as agreed in the 2003 CAP Mid Term Review (MTR). These price cuts offer sufficient
incentives to sell butter intervention stocks. As a result, intervention ending stocks in 2005
are forecast to decline to 150 thousand MT, down from 2003 ending stocks of 270 thousand
MT. Butter production in the NMS in 2005 is forecast at 305 thousand MT, a two percent
increase over the 2003 production. Accession to the EU for butter also immediately led to a
significant increase in exports from the NMS to the EU-15.
EU-15 Non-Fat Dry Milk production is set to decrease by 13 percent in 2004 as a result of
reduced milk deliveries and increased cheese and casein production. NFDM production in the
EU-15 is forecast to recover partly in 2005. The 2004 production decrease is partly offset by
imports from the NMS upon accession, at the expense of NMS exports outside the EU.
Strong export demand in 2004 is expected to lift exports by more than 15 percent, but this is
not forecast to last in 2005. As a result, intervention stocks are expected to halve in 2004,
while intervention price cuts agreed in the MTR are forecast to encourage further depletion of
stocks in 2005. NFDM production in the NMS is expected to decrease for 2004 and 2005.
In 2005, good export demand for WDM is expected to continue, which will have a positive
effect on WDM production. In 2004, EU-15 WDM production will remain stable as increased
exports were supplied from commercial stocks. In the NMS, WMP production is expected to
decrease slightly through 2005, in line with an expected decrease in domestic consumption."
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